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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">inbure</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Известия вузов. Инвестиции. Строительство. Недвижимость</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Izvestiya vuzov. Investitsii. Stroitelstvo. Nedvizhimost</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2227-2917</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2500-154X</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Irkutsk National Research Technical University</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.21285/2227-2917-2023-2-316-323</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">inbure-79</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ТЕХНИЧЕСКИЕ НАУКИ. СТРОИТЕЛЬСТВО</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>TECHNICAL SCIENCES. CONSTRUCTION</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Проектное прогнозирование эксплуатационной надежности cооружений в суровых климатических условиях</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Design forecasting of serviceability of structures in harsh climatic conditions</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3067-9478</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Пинус</surname><given-names>Б. И.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Pinus</surname><given-names>B. I.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Пинус Борис Израилевич - доктор технических наук, профессор, профессор кафедры строительного производства,</p><p>664074, Иркутск, ул. Лермонтова, 83</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Boris I. Pinus - Dr. Sci. (Eng.), Professor, Professor of the Department of Building Production.</p><p>83 Lermontov St., Irkutsk 664074</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">pinus@istu.edu</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Иркутский национальный исследовательский технический университет</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Irkutsk National Research Technical University</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2023</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>09</day><month>11</month><year>2023</year></pub-date><volume>13</volume><issue>2</issue><fpage>316</fpage><lpage>323</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Пинус Б.И., 2023</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2023</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Пинус Б.И.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Pinus B.I.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://inbure.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/79">https://inbure.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/79</self-uri><abstract><p>На основании системного анализа физических закономерностей взаимодействия внешней низкотемпературной среды и железобетонных конструкций и его последствий предложен графоаналитический алгоритм коррекции нормативных функциональных зависимостей показателей эксплуатационной пригодности по условиям обеспечения требуемой надежности в расчетный срок эксплуатации. Динамическая модель работы конструкции рассматривается в форме совокупности статических испытаний на различных этапах низкотемпературных стандартизированных воздействий. При этом временной фактор анализируется в виде относительного (к марке по морозостойкости) количества циклов, что позволяет получить статистическое обобщение различных испытаний. Контролируемые параметры надежности обоснованы методами статистического анализа с учетом изменчивости всех параметров, входящих в нормативные критериальные модели. При этом их чувствительность и информационная представительность оценивается апробированными методами вероятностного прогноза. Экспериментально подтверждена технико-экономическая приемлемость и целесообразность предлагаемого подхода к коррекции обеспечения параметрической надежности изгибаемых железобетонных конструкций. Выполнены статистически представительные экспериментальные исследования с автоматической фиксацией всех значимых параметров сопротивления на различных этапах исчерпания ресурса усталостной структурной трансформации конструктивных элементов «северного исполнения». Получена картотека графических зависимостей отказных значений прочности изгибаемых элементов в полях рассеивания различного уровня их армирования и в различных температурновлажностных климатических условиях. Подтверждено существенное влияние температур и внутреннего сопротивления на параметрические отказы конструктивных элементов априорно установленной обеспеченности (вероятности).</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>By using system analysis, which examines the physical laws of the interaction between external low-temperature environments and reinforced concrete structures, along with their resulting consequences, a graphical-analytical algorithm is proposed in order to adjust the standard functional relationships of serviceability indicators, thereby ensuring the required reliability within the designated service life. The analysis of structural behaviour was carried out through a dynamic model, which involves a combination of static tests at different stages of standardized low-temperature actions. In this case, the time factor was analysed in the form of a relative (to the frost-resistance grade) number of cycles, enabling the statistical compilation of various tests. The controlled reliability parameters were substantiated by the methods of statistical analysis with due regard for the variability of all the parameters within the standard criteria models. Here, their sensitivity and representativeness were assessed using approved probabilistic forecast methods. The technical and economic feasibility of the proposed approach for adjusting the parametric reliability of bending reinforced concrete structures was experimentally confirmed. Statistically significant experimental studies were carried out with automatic registration of all significant resistance parameters during various stages of fatigue-induced structural transformations of the elements intended for arctic service. A catalogue, containing graphical relationships of ultimate tensile strength values for bending elements within dispersion fields at different levels of reinforcement and under varying temperature-humidity climatic conditions, was compiled. The research findings confirm the significant influence of temperature and internal resistance on the parametric failures of structural elements having previously established reliability (probability).</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>эксплуатационная надежность</kwd><kwd>динамическая модель</kwd><kwd>морозная деградация</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>operational reliability</kwd><kwd>dynamic model</kwd><kwd>frost degradation</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Li W.T., Sun W., Jiang J.Y. Damage of Concrete Experiencing Flexural Fatigue Load and Closed Freeze/thaw Cycles Simultaneously // Concrete and building materials. 2011. No. 25 (5). P. 2604–2610. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2010.12.007.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Li W.T., Sun W., Jiang J.Y. 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