Assessment of reliability of supplying water to consumers given the seasonal changes in operating conditions of water transmission and distribution network

The study aims to evaluate the reliability of supplying water to consumers, given the seasonal variability in water consumption and the rate of emergencies in water distribution systems. It was shown that the reliability indexes associated with the operation of the water transmission and distribution network (WTD) exhibit distinctive characteristics in the summer and winter periods. To ensure an uninterrupted water supply to consumers, it is necessary to address the seasonal availability and probability of a reliable water supply (Kj, Rj) and to achieve optimal conditions for WTD functioning in each investigated period of its operation. The statistical analysis of data on water consumption in the previous operation periods and the assessment of accidents on the WTD allow the functioning of the subsequent periods of their operation to be forecasted and modelled. On the example of the water supply system of the Irkutsk-II microdistrict (Irkutsk), the reliability of WTD was studied under various operating modes based on the developed methodology for assessing the operational reliability, electronic models and software. We also studied the influence of emergency rate in the WTD (in quantitative and chronological order) on the water consumption depending on the season, year and territorial distribution in the network. This example proves the influence of the above factors on the reliability of water supply to consumers. Based on the research results, it is recommended that operating entities monitor the change in the specified reliability indicators during the seasons of the year. This, in turn, will allow the operability and regime controllability of the system to be assessed and the efficiency to be improved by optimising the WTD development and reconstruction.

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